Oil Traders Expect A Short War
- Neelkanth Mishra
- Updated: Mar 04, 2026, 01:21 IST IST
Nearly everyone expected this to be a short war. Not just those who started it, but also commodity markets.
Oil prices jumped around 10% when the conflict started, much less than the reaction when Russia attacked Ukraine. This is understandable: Iran exports only 1.5-1.8 of the 3.2mn barrels per day (mbpd) it produces, of which 80-90% are bought by China. Disruption to these volumes, if any, hits small in an otherwise oversupplied oil market: global demand is 105mbpd, of which around 48mbpd is traded globally.
Oil prices jumped around 10% when the conflict started, much less than the reaction when Russia attacked Ukraine. This is understandable: Iran exports only 1.5-1.8 of the 3.2mn barrels per day (mbpd) it produces, of which 80-90% are bought by China. Disruption to these volumes, if any, hits small in an otherwise oversupplied oil market: global demand is 105mbpd, of which around 48mbpd is traded globally.
